Monday, January 30, 2012

MBA case study: lenovo behind the high-growth save worry

Recently, the global PC market occurred since the 2004 merger of the biggest IBMPC association after industry changes. The world's first big PC giant hewlett-packard announced on August 18, said the company is considering using stripping or other transactions, personal computer business department "all or part of the resolution", the relevant work will split in the 12 months to 18 months to complete, HP computer or another independent company name sales.



As for many years in the world market of the first computer manufacturers, HP suddenly quite a bit this news came out of the darkness of the taste.



Two results: HP dim, lenovo scenery?



The global IT croc HP, why suddenly to "split up their children", a strong man DuanWan of personal computer business department "all or part of the open sale"? From August 19, released by the second fiscal 2011 HP quarter earnings can see one spot. HP this quarter results show that the money JiHuiPu revenue of $31.2 billion, higher than last year of $30.7 billion in the same period, but only than last year the corresponding period grows 1%. Earnings also shows, almost a year, and by the consumer PC demand weak effect etc, especially smartphone and tablet popularization of the computer, cut to the traditional PC demand people, HP's personal computer business department of performance, the personal computer business department of revenue fell 3% year-on-year. HP for this cut the whole group its full fiscal year performance expectations.



Taken together, though officially completed since 2002 to compaq acquisition, HP then occupy the global PC market share head seat, last year HP personal computer business department more business income more than 400 dollars, accounts for the company overall business income nearly a third, but in the company overall operating profits but proportion of only 13%, have "day thin west mountain" of the state.



HP announced on the stripping growth had stalled, less profit PC business, on the other hand to $10.3 billion gold buy the British commercial software giant Autonomy developers focus on the rapid growth of software services, to take off the "hard" turn "soft" strategic transformation route revealed no doubt, reflects the HP from the host to the software vendors and service manufacturers of transformation determination.



HP CEO LiYiKe say they hope to expand cloud services, reduce dependence on to the PC business, and revealed a detailed plan: to high value, high profits into products; HP's will in the future focus on cloud computing, solution, software, especially in the enterprise, business and government market development; Increasing innovation investment, promote differentiation.



But compared to hewlett-packard PC "day thin west mountain" feeling of dim, HP's main rival lenovo seem to is "daring, namely, a steady victory".



Lenovo group released on August 18, ended June 30, 2011's second quarter performance report. Results showed that in the quarter lenovo comprehensive sales year-on-year growth of 15% to a record $5.9 billion; Net profit for 108 million us dollars, up 98%. Quarterly results show at the same time, lenovo in this quarter ninth consecutive quarter in global market average growth beyond, the global personal computer sales up 23.1% year-on-year, far higher than in the same period the overall market sales growth of 2.7% of the value. In the global PC market, lenovo with 12.2% of the market share beyond acer, ranking first in the world and the third, and the gap with dell has shrunk to 0.6%.



Look from the region, lenovo this quarter the comprehensive sales in China for $2.8 billion, which accounts for 47.9% of the total sales. In emerging markets, lenovo personal computer sales 46.5% year-on-year increase in Europe and mature market, lenovo this season comprehensive sales of $2.1 billion, accounting for 34.6% of the total sales group's global, and obtained a certain growth.



"Our for sales, turnover and market share, and new highs in all areas, customers and product category in the more than growth and become the global performance, the fastest growing major PC manufacturers. Say, a past fiscal year, realize the milestone, is a breakthrough lenovo split more than 10 to 'best of the year". Lenovo group CEO Mr Yang proudly said.



Lenovo behind high growth, with worry



So, position even more the consolidation of the association is not really have nothing worry about?



In fact, now lenovo flowers everywhere, the scenery, from back, not to abandon all, have shown that even experts, lenovo is facing more and more new challenges, many problems, should be vigilant. Lenovo group chairman liu oneself also said, lenovo on a personal computer business still faces major challenges, not slack.



PC JuJiZhan increasingly fierce, the lenovo can keep the first three?



Although lenovo surrender beautiful transcript, but lenovo proud of the domestic market are faced with new and old "power" threat.



IDC figures show, the second quarter this year, apple in the greater China region for the first time exceeded sales associate. Apple's products, including the iPhone, iPad and Mac computers in China's sales of $3.8 billion, a 6 times last year. Although lenovo has nine consecutive quarter of the fastest-growing PC industry as company, the second quarter sales in China to 2.8 billion us dollars, up by 23.4%, but is still far more limited than apple.



In addition to outside apple, dell and acer and other enterprise also to lenovo's market share "tiger". The most threatening is still the acer in Taiwan. It already through the acquisition of the second continental computer brand founder PC, dig Angle to lenovo mainland executives by wave attack. IDC the latest figures show that in the Asia Pacific region in the second quarter this year macro sales rankings, from the fourth jumped to a second, more than the HP and dell, city of rate from 8.3% last year to 11.9% sharply, press association, and its second season in Asia Pacific shipments increased 62%, the highest in the four big brands.



And dell, its direct marketing business, still full of competition, not only such, dell also in flat computers, servers, IT service areas to strengthen the investment. As dell in China chengdu second line computer system production base and customer service centre in 2011 overall operating and xiamen new marketing establishment of the center, the next 10 years, dell in China's total input will more than $100 billion, is expected to become China's PC market leader, China's PC market ranking may rewrite.



Experts think, HP although want to split, peel the PC business, but this doesn't mean PC will disappear from HP hand, PC as HP a yearly sales of tens of millions of Taiwan business, will never perish immediately, just from the left hand in his right hand to play and in the future the 2 ~ 3 years HP is still the most deadly rival lenovo.



More important, the global PC industry from whole development perspective, lenovo challenges not only from a rival, also want to face the future within a few years the PC market may be tablet computer, smart phones have gradually replace and profitability of the trend continued to decline, how can in this period realize the stable development, effectively solve the traditional PC, smart phones and tablet computer between the three coordinate development and finally stand out a series of problems, such as lenovo will need to solve a difficult problem.



Liu has recently said: "if only do this thing, and that is PC death. So in the new place or, one is to research and development, the second is the Internet phone."



"The strong outside weak", policy or send lenovo frustration



The data shows, lenovo in April to June this year the global market share of 12.2%, a proportion of 47.9% compared with China market share one big chunk.



To stimulate the economy, further expand the domestic demand, China in 2008, 2009, to begin respectively performed "home appliance to the country", "to the old change new" activities, the winning electrical home appliances manufacturers to 10% of financial subsidies, and also implement energy subsidies. So the three-pronged policy "big aid" in the world of unprecedented. Experts point out that, three big policy subsidies, every year at least for those who lead, the winning electrical home appliances manufacturers the uplifting 6% market share of more than 10% and upgrade the profits.



However, shandong, henan, sichuan, Qingdao three provinces and one city the first pilot areas of the appliances to the country policy will expire in November, and other national regions will expire in November 2012. No policy propped up, lenovo can keep so "cow"?



Except in emerging markets continue to expand the market share outside, lenovo in the developed countries the mature market remains a defensive state, in many enterprise to secure the European and American market, lenovo every advance will put great effort. Although two quarter this year in America and Europe lenovo developed countries also get breakthrough growth for the first time, but its sustainability remains to be seen. And the European and American market breakthrough for the first time, a large part of the reason is that the merger with capital expansion means rather than business strategy to achieve.



January 27,, lenovo group and NEC NEC lenovo group founded in Japan, and constructs the NEC holding B.V called lenovo. New company, lenovo hold a 51% stake in the new company, and NEC will hold 49%. The contribution of the acquisition, the global PC market share in lenovo increased by 0.5%. After the acquisition NECPC, June 1, lenovo announced a $670 million acquisition of German personal PC enterprise Medion. Medion occupies 14% market share, German PC PC market share of 7.5% in Western Europe, Europe is the second largest manufacturer of PC market. Undeniable, mergers and acquisitions to lenovo in this stage's contribution to the growth quite a lot.



Transformation mobile Internet, the roads are not smooth



Some time ago, Mr Yang declared, the next five years will account for mobile Internet products lenovo group 80% of total sales. But lenovo the grand goal of transformation in many experts eyes, still still in "om" period, surrounded by both sides.



Due to the future development of the mobile Internet huge potential, in addition to the association, the traditional PC makers have dabbled in mobile Internet field. Such as dell and acer have released their smart phones, and in addition to release the smart phone, asus, also released ebook reader. HP also launched two paragraphs webOS platform based on smart phones HPVeer and HPPre3, even PC also don't, emphasizing on the development of mobile Internet.



Similarly, in smart phones, mobile Internet that field, has strong competitors. With nokia, apple, samsung, MOTO, HTC, as a representative of the international mobile phone brand faction, the product concept innovation, technology is advanced, have strong brand power, occupy most of the high end in domestic market. ZDC statistics show that in the first half of 2011, China mobile phone market by users about the most of the top 10 big mobile phone brand, foreign and Taiwan brand occupies 81.3% of the attention proportion, lenovo has not cut.



Can say, in brand influence, business model, the main PC manufacturers association with the traditional mobile Internet field than manufacturers, competition does not have what special advantage. From the buyback lenovo mobile OPhone released before the performance of the markets go seems to have demonstrated this, and that is the lenovo April launch core product to the main reason of the music Phone.



Now lenovo mobile Internet and digital home business department of revenue of $215 million, lenovo group accounts for only 3.6% of overall sales share from 80% is far worse. Even if the music Phone launched high-profile lenovo can this year sales of 1 million, lenovo mobile Phone business accounts for less than 8% than also blunt.



In addition to smart phones outside, lenovo mobile strategy of the other two kinds of products of intelligent this and tablet computer in mobile Internet application prospect in the market is hard to predict. So far this year on June 30, sales of music Pad break through 80000, but far more limited than apple. At first, Mr Yang expected lenovo will get 20% of China's tablet PC market, but it seems this is still a road that is full of thorns.



Software system control in person, transformation or trapped "passive"



Because open source code, Google Android become today's best-known smart Phone system, one of the launch of the association also USES Android Phone music. But because of this, lenovo music Phone hidden risk is that, whether chip or operating system, it had no control right, it will hinder the transformation of lenovo future plan.



Music Phone is to be allowed the use Google Android system, but it also causes lenovo on application developers and users of control, not like apple so powerful. Because Google Android operating system based on smart Phone, music Phone is not the only application business cooperation terminal, and Google Android have their own software stores, all kinds of Android BBS Lin Lin always, lenovo music Phone users can download the program to Androidmarket, don't have to download music directly to everything Phone, after all there more rich program. And apple iPhone maverick closed system makes it apple for application providers are more right, because the iPhone is their only terminal. Therefore, because of the operating system not like apple the discourse right, it makes music Phone in and content providers (i.e. application providers) appears on the cooperation of the passive did. At present application store software, the lenovo too few, is not better than other smart phone manufacturers have more advantage.



Also, Google Android's attraction is its open source charm, the manufacturer can according to their own needs to change to code. Lenovo USES is Android1.6, but to nearly sixty percent of Android source code in change, and source code changes too big, has led to the music Phone system upgrade too slow, cause customer dissatisfaction.



And as August 15, Google acquisition of MOTOROLA's mobile phone, foray into mobile Internet, Google Android will still be free open source to other cell phone manufacturers, there is a great uncertainty, the lenovo or a bomb. At present, such as samsung HTC firms have started to look for more way out, but lenovo are not yet to do that.



Lack of unique mature profit model, lenovo mobile Internet soft rib



On April 19, 2010, lenovo leader in lenovo mobile Internet liu strategic and new product conference of jiyang generous to bite the iPhone and said. Later in the year mid-may, lenovo music Phone officially listed. Well-known marketing experts LiGuangDou think, music Phone can be very popular, but may not be able to give lenovo bring more profit, its profit as the main source of perhaps earn just part of the assembly yourself "CuanJi" service fee only.



The expert thinks, with market value already close to $240 billion or become a decisive battle apple industry a a proverb, lenovo is only the students learning imitate. Experts think, whether iPhoneOS or MacOS system, all is the apple of the independent research and development outstanding achievements, this for apple in and telecommunication operators, software application in negotiating business in a very strong position to receive the highest profit sharing, or even a home-grown business model. Lenovo music Phone but more like a PC industry in a repeated the "stick" brand, "assembly" way, more smart Phone plays the role of the downstream industry chain integration, mobile Phone operating system also are underlings.



Can say, the chain of apple is lenovo is hard to set up, lenovo starting point always only "end", no matter be lenovo mobile phone or computer do plane, all difficult from closed terminals, closed software, closed network, the content of the charge of the four construction or integration. The key point, compared to apple's creativity, lenovo or shame. Apple make a profit of the three major source in Chinese soil are hard to support lenovo duplicate: high price, and operators into, software stores, therefore, lenovo to win the highly profitable product system with difficulties.



Although at present in China telecom, China unicom and lenovo own channel system, music Phone made a lot of growth, but music Phone products a single, a year only a product, and has been for the industry. Mobile product line not rich, that lenovo is hard to improve profitability, also make the lenovo transformation toward mobile Internet potential obstruction is increased.



Liu said, lenovo m&a IBMPC six years, after all kinds of difficult bumpy test, just like a long march, and finally to the end point. The long march ended, lenovo new journey is about to begin, this new segment liu journey was called "mobile Internet journey". And once with the localization of the original local PC market experience in GongChengLveDe, firmly intact lenovo, can in intelligent mobile phone market replicate the success path again, for the way is still full of difficult bumpy mobile Internet networks of the future perfect position?

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